Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by the need for statistically cautious assessment of Ukraine’s macroeconomic dynamics under the conditions of full-scale war and substantial uncertainty. The purpose was to compare GDP dynamics in the pre-war and full-scale war periods, assess its associations with selected macroeconomic indicators and derive an indicative medium-term recovery trajectory. The analysis used annual data for 2010–2024 (n = 15) covering GDP, gross fixed capital formation, general government final consumption expenditure, exports and imports. Descriptive statistics, Student’s t-test, Mann–Whitney U-test, effect-size estimation, Pearson correlation analysis and exploratory multiple regression were applied. Mean GDP decreased from 101.96 billion constant 2015 US$ in 2010– 2021 to 75.80 billion in 2022–2024. The between-period difference was statistically significant, t(13) = 5.90, p < 0.001 and substantial in magnitude, with Hedges’ g = 3.59 (95% CI: 1.75–5.37). Exports showed the strongest positive association with GDP (r = 0.939), whereas government consumption expenditure was negatively associated with GDP (r = –0.722); these relationships were interpreted as statistical co-movements rather than causal effects. The exploratory regression model produced R² = 0.966 and adjusted R² = 0.953, but its predictive interpretation is limited by the small sample and 10 residual degrees of freedom. Consequently, the 2025–2027 estimates were framed as scenario-based projections rather than validated forecasts. Under the baseline scenario, GDP shows a gradual but incomplete recovery. The findings provide an exploratory empirical basis for assessing wartime macroeconomic dynamics while explicitly representing estimation and projection uncertainty.
Keywords: Economic Growth, Gross Domestic Product, Macroeconomic Indicators, Regression and Correlation Analysis, Statistical Regularity, Time Series.