Abstract
India has been the leading consumers of gold with the consumption of around 774 metric tons in 2022. The demand for gold in India is majorly associated with its culture, tradition, attractiveness, and the source for financial security (GJC,n.d.)The gold market in India plays a vital role in the economy as a stable asset and hedge against inflation due to its ability to hold value over time. In order to limit the import of gold and reduce the country’s current deficit, the Indian Government introduced Sovereign Gold Bonds in 2015 as a substitute to physical gold. As SGBs export-import values are backed by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) they are considered as an inflation hedging tool. The study aims to examine the effectiveness of SGBs, in the changing economy by understanding the impact of key economic indicators – Inflation Rate, Exchange Rate, Per Capita Income, Gold Prices, and GDP Growth Rate—on the performance of Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs) in India. 36 months observations of the selected macroeconomic variables and series wise released prices are collected for a period starting from September 2021 till August 2024 for the analysis. Descriptive statistics is applied to understand the characteristics of the variables. Further, correlation and ordinary least square method is used to check the existing relationship and impact level of macroeconomic variables on SGBs. Lastly, both long run and short run relationships of these variables are analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL).
Keywords: ARDL, Exchange Rate, GDP, Gold Prices, Inflation Rate, Sovereign Gold Bonds.