Abstract
In light of the exacerbation of economic challenges resulting from heightened inflation and the recent cessation of fuel subsidies, there has been a discernible escalation in the poverty rate across emerging economies globally, with particular emphasis on the Nigerian context. This research endeavors to scrutinize the intricate interconnection between the poverty rate and pertinent macroeconomic volatility indices, encompassing inflation, Gross National Income (GNI), unemployment, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) within the Nigerian framework. Noteworthy in its contribution, this study addresses a notable lacuna by incorporating indices hitherto overlooked in antecedent research. Utilizing secondary data spanning the temporal continuum from 1990 to 2022, a meticulous analysis ensued. The knit root test was executed to rectify the presence of unit roots that might engender spurious findings. Subsequently, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model of order (1, 1, 1, 1, 0) was employed. The findings divulge a discernible short-term and long-term nexus between poverty incidence and the identified macroeconomic volatility indices in Nigeria. The model further posits that an elevated poverty incidence precipitates a decline in economic growth in both temporal horizons, underscoring the adverse effects. Conversely, a heightened GNI manifests as a catalyst for enhanced economic growth in Nigeria. Consequently, this underscores the imperative for governmental intervention in productive endeavors aimed at augmenting Nigeria’s GNI, thereby fostering economic growth, mitigating unemployment, and ultimately alleviating the elevated poverty rates pervasive in the nation.
Keywords: GDP, GNI, Inflation, Macroeconomic Volatility, Poverty, Unemployment.